# The Extended Kalman Filter: An Interactive Tutorial for Non-Experts

### Part 12: Prediction and Update Revisited

Here again is our modified formula for system state: $x_k = A x_{k-1}$ where $x$ is a vector and $A$ is a matrix. As you may recall, the original form of this equation was $x_k = a x_{k-1} + b u_k$ where $u_k$ is a control signal, and $b$ is a coefficient to scale it. We also had the equation $z_k = c x_k + v_k$ where $z_k$ is a measurement (observation, sensor) signal, and $v_k$ is some noise added to that signal resulting from the sensor's inaccuracy. So how do we modify these original forms to work with our new vector/matrix approach? As you might suspect, linear algebra makes this quite simple: we write the coefficients $b$ and $c$ in capital letters, making them matrices rather than scalar (single) values: $x_k = A x_{k-1} + B u_k$ $z_k = C x_k + v_k$ Then all the variables (state, observation, noise, control) are considered vectors, and we have a set of matrix * vector multiplications. 

So what about our prediction and update equations? Recall that they are:

Predict: $\hat{x}_k = a \hat{x}_{k-1} + b u_k$ $p_k = a p_{k-1} a$ Update: $g_k = p_k c / (c p_k c + r)$ $\hat{x}_k \leftarrow \hat{x}_k + g_k(z_k - c \hat{x}_k)$ $p_k \leftarrow (1 - g_k c) p_k$ We would like to just capitalize all the constants $a$, $b$, $c$, and $r$ so that they become matrices $A$, $B$, $C$, and $R$, and be done with it. But things are a little trickier for linear algebra! You may remember when I promised to explain why I didn't simplify $a p_{k-1} a$ to $a^2 p_{k-1}$. The answer is that linear algebra multiplication is not as straightforward as ordinary multiplication. To get the answer to come out right, we often have to perform the multiplication in a certain order; for example, $A x B$ is not necessarily equal to $B x A$. We may also need to transpose the matrix, indicated by putting a little superscript $^T$ next to the matrix. Transposing a matrix is done by turning each row into a column and each column into a row. Here are some examples: $\begin{bmatrix} a & b\\ c & d \end{bmatrix} ^T= \begin{bmatrix} a & c\\ b & d \end{bmatrix}$ $\begin{bmatrix} a & b & c\\ d & e & f \\ g & h & i \end{bmatrix} ^T = \begin{bmatrix} a & d & g\\ b & e & h \\ c & f & i \end{bmatrix}$ With this knowledge in mind, we can rewrite our prediction equations as follows: $\hat{x}_k = A \hat{x}_{k-1} + B u_k$ $P_k = A P_{k-1} A^T$ Note that we have rewritten both $A$ and $P_k$ in capital letters, indicating that they are matrices. We already know why $A$ is a matrix; we will defer for a moment understanding why $P_k$ is also a matrix.

What about our update equations? The second update formula, for the state estimation $\hat{x}_k$, is straightforward: $\hat{x}_k \leftarrow \hat{x}_k + g_k(z_k - C \hat{x}_k)$ but the gain update involves a division: $g_k = p_k c / (c p_k c + r)$ Since multiplication and division are so closely related, we run into a similar issue with matrix division as we did with multiplication. To see how we deal with this issue, let's first rewrite our first update equation using the familiar superscript $^{-1}$ to indicate division as inversion ($a^{-1} = 1/a$): $g_k = p_k c (c p_k c + r)^{-1}$ Now we turn $c$, $r$,and $g$ and the constant 1 into matrices, transposing $C$ as needed – and deferring for a moment, once more, our understanding of why they need to be matrices: $G_k = P_k C^T (C p_k C^T + R)^{-1}$ $P_k \leftarrow (I - G_k C) P_k$ So how do we compute $(C p_k C^T + R)^{-1}$, the inverse of the matrix $(C p_k C + R)$ ? Just as with ordinary inversion, where $a * a^{-1} = 1$, we need matrix inversion to work in a way that multiplying a matrix by its own inverse produces an identity matrix, which when multiplied by any other matrix leaves that matrix unchanged: $A A^{-1} = I$ where (for a 3x3 matrix) $I = \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 0 & 0\\ 0 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 1 \end{bmatrix}$ Computing a matrix inverse isn't as simple as inverting each element of the matrix, which would yield the wrong answer in most cases. Although the details of matrix inversion are beyond the scope of this tutorial, there are excellent resources like MathWorld for learning about it. Even better, you usually don't have to code it yourself; it is built into languages like Matlab, and is available via a package in Python and other popular languages.

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 Indeed, we can think of our original scalar form of these equations as a special case of the linear-algebra form, with zeros in all but one position in each matrix.